More crystal ball gazing today, and this time we are looking into the far future, at least in NBA terms. When looking at the direction of an NBA team often the most valuable insight comes not from an Owner, or a General Manager, but from the list of contracts that the team has signed. While perusing the Trailblazers’ salary situation something stands out, the 2007-2008 season.

     In 2007-2008 the Trailblazers have four players with guaranteed contracts, and at least one team option I feel sure they will pick up (Sebastian Telfair). These contracts are Telfair, Outlaw, Miles, Randolph and Ratliff. This almost reads like a starting line-up, the only question mark being Travis Outlaw at the shooting guard. This is the core around which the TrailBlazers are building.

     The salary in 2007-2008 counting just the above contracts is $39,053,973 which would put the TrailBlazers somewhere in the vicinity of $11-15 million under the cap, but with a minimum of seven roster spots to fill. This averages out to no more than $2.5 million per roster spot. With the league minimum salary approaching $1 million this eliminates a chance of major free agent acquisitions. The TrailBlazers of the future will come through the draft, trades and salary cap exceptions.

     In 2007-2008 the above core will have ages of 22 (Telfair), 23 (Outlaw), 26 (Miles), 26 (Randolph) and 34 (Ratliff). Which one doesn’t fit? It seems obvious that Ratliff is the odd man out. As the rest of the team moves into its prime, Ratliff fades into the sunset. The first year of the Blazers new plan, free of the last rippling effect of the previous era (Derek Anderson and Ruben Patterson) will likely be the last year of Theo Ratliff’s tenure as a Blazer. I for one see no chance of the Blazers picking up their option on Theo and paying a thirty-five year-old undersized center, whose game is based upon athleticism, $13 million.

     So as the dawn of the new Blazer era comes into being during 2007-2008 there are two question marks, the position of

shooting guard and the position of center. Center seems a simpler proposition, with the emergence of Przybilla as a force and the potential of Ha to be a serviceable back-up, there are the players of an age to fill this position. Unfortunately Przybilla’s contract situation means that he can be offered more money elsewhere. Ironically enough, the replacement of Theo Ratliff might be easier to retain if Theo Ratliff can outplay him next year. If Przybilla is relegated to 15 minutes a night off the bench, there will be less big money floated his way as a temptation once his contract is ended. The maximum the Blazers can offer is the Mid-Level Exception.

     The Shooting Guard position still seems the achilles heel of the Blazer plan. The most talented shooting guards in this draft are 18 year old projects. As the Blazer plan moves into place these guards will be only 19 or 20, just beginning to learn the craft of the NBA. There are a couple of more experienced Shooting Guards in Rashard McCants and Rudy Fernandez, but they have character and contract issues respectively. The obvious alternative to drafting is trading. During the next few years John Nash will never have a wider array of assets than he will this summer. With two possibilities for sign-and-trades (Damon Stoudamire and Shareef Abdur-Rahim), Nick Van Exel’s waivable contract, the #3 draft pick and an excess of Small Forwards the material is there. The question is whether the trading partner with the right player is available. The right player must be able to play high quality Shooting Guard in 3-6 years, and yet must be identified now. This summer is a tough time for John Nash, if he doesn’t make the right move this summer, he will not get another opportunity.

     From my crystal ball I see a Blazer plan of a young, settled roster growing together over the next couple of years. This roster is missing one piece and the time to get that piece is now. Without that piece the plan falls apart and things look grim. With that piece the future could be as bright as we can imagine, as long as we are patient enough to wait for it. The time is now for John Nash to step up and make a plan reality.

-EnglandDan