This
is, of course, treacherous waters to attempt to navigate.
I have no inside information, but then again, that might
be a good thing when you consider the record of those quoting “inside
sources”. My main source will simply consist of the
words of the individuals actually involved, predominantly
the TrailBlazer management. I find that is often the most
reliable method, and it is certainly the most honest.
The TrailBlazers
have consistently maintained that they prefer someone
with NBA head coaching experience. They have also said
that the search is taking longer than they would like
due to “the situation”. The “domino” effect
was also mentioned this week in an on-line chat with
Steve Paterson. I expect that what is going on is very
reminiscent of a draft board. They have targeted a number
one prospect, but have alternatives picked out if they
don’t get the coach they want.
This theory
rules out some candidates. Paul Silas has been repeatedly
mentioned, but there is no situation preventing him coming
here, and no domino needs to fall to make him available.
I see nothing preventing the hire of Eric Musselman at
this point either. I personally believe these two candidates
should be ruled out because although they have some of
the qualities needed (experience, knowledge, discipline)
they lack another quality mentioned frequently by the
Blazer management, that of being a communicator. In today’s
NBA climate, in which players have longer guaranteed
contracts for more money than the coaches, and are less
able to move due to the constraints of the Collective
Bargaining Agreement, you need a coach who can clearly
express his game plan, but also get his players to buy
in and agree to it.
The consensus
top pick is Flip Saunders. He has the pedigree of NBA
head coaching experience. More importantly he has the
experience of taking a young team from being a losing
team to a consistently winning team without losing the
support of his players. He is a communicator with a solid
game plan that lost his position when he lost Sam Cassell
and Latrell Sprewell before the season even started.
I think the lack of a contract extension to Sprewell
and musings of a Bonzi Wells for Sam Cassell trade speaks
to who the Minnesota Timberwolves think is responsible
for that situation.
So what
is the situation that prevents Portland hiring Flip Saunders?
It certainly isn’t money. With Paul Allen and Portland’s
unusual situation of having no fired coach still under
contract Flip could get as much money, and as many years
here as anywhere else. If he was going to New York or
Los Angeles as a first choice I feel confident that would
have been settled weeks ago. The truth is that New York
is a flat-out horror show with
a horrible team and a bloated |
|
salary
roster. LA is bright lights, big money but also big pressure,
no patience, a superstar with a titanic ego and no job
security. What is keeping Flip Saunders is the chance to
coach Detroit, a class organization that has a chance at
winning a championship.
The “situation” is
that Larry Brown may have to step down as coach of the
Pistons for health reasons. He has explicitly said he doesn’t
want to, but he may have no choice. He has promised to
give the Pistons a decision 72 hours after their final
playoff game, which could be anywhere from Saturday to
two weeks from now. The “domino” is that
if Larry Brown stays then Flip is available. If Brown
leaves then the domino is that the next candidate is
approached.
Who might
that next candidate be? I suggest Nate MacMillan is #2
on the coaching draft board. He has head coaching experience,
was a candidate for Coach of the Year, dealt with troublesome
characters in Danny Fortson and Jerome James in Seattle,
but didn’t lose his team. His team might lose him
as he is a free-agent with the notoriously stingy Seattle
Supersonics weighed down with essentially an entire team
of free-agents. A swift and decisive offer might well
bring him to Portland.
After
Nate the crystal ball becomes more cloudy. A top assistant
in the NBA seems like the next step, Mike Iavoroni of
Phoenix or Phil Johnson of Utah would be solid choices.
For a far more risky, but groundbreaking step Portland
could look abroad. At some point there will be a foreign
born coach in the NBA as there are now many players when
that once seemed so unlikely. Portland was a trailblazer
back then, will they be so again? Ruben Magnano beat
a Larry Brown-coached US team in the Olympics. Dusan
Ivkovic has had more than 25 straight winning seasons.
Probably not this time, but it won’t be long.
Finally,
I know there will be people asking, “What about
Phil Jackson?” Phil Jackson cares about his legacy.
He will be back to coach again when he feels he can win
a championship or two, enough to cement himself as the “Greatest
Coach of All-Time.” Until then he will be happy
to loom large in the background. Also, there is residual
hate from his time as a Laker, too much for this writer
to ever overcome.
So expect
the dominos to start falling at the conclusion of the
Piston’s play-off run. Larry Brown’s announcement
will lead swiftly to Saunders’ announcement. Saunders’ announcement
leads rapidly, if not immediately to the Blazer’s
announcement. I personally wish Larry Brown success and
good health.
-EnglandDan |
